September 30th, 2006

wahlbarometer: kw39

das finale wahlbarometer von LAN:

övp: 37,9% (+0,6)
spö: 35,0% (+0,7)
fpö: 10,6% (-0,2)
grüne: 10,4% (-0,6)
bzö: 3,2% (-0,3)
hpm: 2,1% (-0,2)
kpö: 0,8% (-)

wahlbeteiligung: 78,5% (-)

die fpö stürmt unmittelbar vor der ziellinie auf platz drei, nach einem langen und schrecklichen wahlkampf kann hc strache dank bawag, bzö und des allgemein niedrigen wahlkampfniveaus genug protestwähler mobilisieren um knapp vor den grünen zu landen, welche im vergleich zur vorwoche stark verlieren, da sie im wahlkampffinish nicht über die notwendige präsenz und themenführerschaft verfügen. die övp fährt sicher den ersten platz nach hause, wenngleich ich trotz dieser klaren prognose eine überraschung durch die spö durchaus für möglich halte. das bzö und die liste martin scheitern klar. als koalition kommt schwarz-rot, erstens weil die övp mit allen mitteln in der regierung bleiben und die spö mit allen mitteln in die regierung kommen will, zweitens weil der kleinste gemeinsame nenner der großparteien (unter beachtung von im vorfeld postulierten koalitionsbedingungen) immer noch größere gemeinsamkeiten als die anderen rechnerisch möglichen koalitionsformen besitzt und drittens weil die grünen als vierter nicht in die regierung gehen werden/wollen/können bzw. schüssel (hoffentlich) keine koalition mit der fpö machen kann. (LAN)

das finale wahlbarometer von cdw:

övp 38,2% (-0,4%)
spö 34,4% (+0,5%)
grüne 10,7% (-0,2%)
fpö 10,0% (+0,1%)
bzö 3,7% (-)
hpm 1,9% (-)
kpö 0,9% (-)

wahlbeteiligung: 80,0% (+11,3%)

morgen wird gewählt. im jüngsten wahlbarometer von cdw gibt es nur noch marginale verschiebungen. die övp wird demnach morgen klar gewinnen, die spö wird zweiter, fpö und grüne werden ungefähr gleich auf liegen und weder bzö, die liste hans-peter martins noch die kpö den einzug in den nationalrat schaffen. die wahlbeteiligung wird optimistisch nach oben korrigiert. (cdw)

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